Likelihood (1–5) × Impact (1–5) = Score. Critical ≥ 20, High ≥ 12, Medium ≥ 6.
| ID | Category | Risk | Evidence | Impact | Plays | Owner & By When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Paper |
Paper process not started — no legal, procurement, or compliance contacts identified
Known |
• 2/23: “Paper process contacts (legal, procurement, compliance) still unidentified.” • Pragya committed to finding them but none named yet. • Conor pushing for parallel processing to protect March 31 close. |
Critical path blocker. Enterprise paper process typically 4–6 weeks. March 31 close impossible without immediate initiation. |
P3
P6
|
Conor — push Pragya for named contacts by 2026-02-28; send MSA proactively |
| R2 | Timing |
Extreme timeline compression — 35 days to close
Known |
• Agent builds this week → pilot complete March 6 → business case March 9–12 → Vi readout March 13 → close March 31. • No slack in schedule. Any slip cascades. • Marketing offsite next week could shift priorities. |
Zero-margin timeline. Single delay in any workstream pushes past Q1. Paper process alone could consume entire remaining window. |
P6
P8
|
Conor — maintain weekly checkpoints; escalate any slip immediately |
| R3 | Political |
Single-threaded through Pragya Singh
Known |
• Pragya is the only path to Vi Chau. If she stalls, deal stalls. • No direct Optimizely-to-Vi relationship built. • Pragya blocking time this week but bandwidth concern flagged. |
If Pragya deprioritizes, gets pulled into other work, or loses internal credibility, entire deal momentum stops. No backup path to EB. |
P1
P2
P3
|
Conor — build parallel path via Kim/Alex CMO summit mid-March; Patrick to explore Alex Kim relationship |
| R4 | Technical |
Pilot scope risk — all three agents must validate before executive case
Known |
• 2/23: “Pragya requires ALL THREE agents validated in pilot (not just one) before building executive case for Vi.” • Scope reduced to ~20 pages per agent but still ambitious for 10-day pilot window. |
If any single agent underperforms, Pragya will not bring business case to Vi. Three points of failure instead of one. |
P5
P8
|
Franz (FDE) — agent builds complete by 2026-02-28; Conor — define success criteria per agent before pilot starts |
| R5 | Political |
Economic buyer (Vi Chau) not directly engaged
Known |
• Vi targeted for mid-March readout but no direct Optimizely relationship exists. • Path is Pragya → Alex Kim → Vi — executive triangle active but indirect. • CMO summit mid-March is potential access point. |
EB has no context on Optimizely value, no relationship equity. Cold readout with Vi increases rejection risk. |
P1
P9
|
Conor/Patrick — prep exec outreach briefing for Kim/Alex CMO summit; target Vi pre-brief before March 13 |
| R6 | Technical |
CMP adoption struggles could undermine Opal positioning
Known |
• 2/20: “Only Siobhan fully adopted CMP, rest of team struggling.” • Opal positioned as CMP adoption accelerant. • If team associates Optimizely with difficult tools, Opal pitch loses credibility. |
Opal framed as solution to CMP problem — but if adoption problem is deeper, adding Opal compounds complexity rather than solving it. |
P4
P5
|
Conor — frame Opal value independent of CMP; ensure pilot agents don’t depend on CMP proficiency |
| R7 | Political |
Internal experimentation friction and leadership skepticism
Known |
• 2/20 debrief: open friction between Pragya and Brandon. • Michael Lam exploring analytics as replacement for experimentation. • Leadership skepticism runs deep on Optimizely experimentation value. |
Negative experimentation sentiment could bleed into Opal evaluation. If leadership views Optimizely relationship as troubled, new $250K investment faces headwinds. |
P3
P4
|
Patrick — manage Brandon relationship; Conor — ensure Opal narrative is independent of experimentation health |
| R8 | Political |
Marketing team alignment uncertain — offsite could shift priorities
Known |
• 2/20: Marla agreed marketing team should join pilot — “good overlap.” • Marketing offsite next week could reprioritize. • Marketing agents depend on Marla’s team participating. |
If marketing deprioritizes or opts out of pilot, one of three required agents loses its validation path. Triggers R4. |
P3
P7
|
Conor — send de-pressure email per Patrick’s recommendation; confirm marketing participation post-offsite |